Australian Economy Australian interest rates

The RBA should worry about the labour market

Wednesday 15 July 2026

The interest rate futures market has become far less hawkish on interest rates.

Only a few months ago, the market was still tipping two more 25 bp interest rate hikes for 2026. Now, it has priced in a roughly 50% chance that the RBA will deliver one 25 bp hike this year.

RBA interest rate pricing

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.