Victoria’s SRL will bury the state with debt

Thursday 11 June 2026

Infrastructure Australia (IA) has repeatedly stated that it had “low confidence” in Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) East, which was forecast to cost $34.5 billion in 2021, based on 2019–20 assumptions.

Adjusting only for inflation brings the estimate to around $42.3 billion, and that does not account for the post‑pandemic surge in construction costs.

Several economists quoted in The Australian argue that the original cost estimate for the SRL is no longer credible:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.