The art of kissing ass

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The Dump says the following.

  1. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon under the new deal.
  2. The agreement includes strong policing and enforcement powers.
  3. Trump: Obama’s JCPOA was a horrible deal that led toward a bomb.
  4. Past U.S. payments to Iran were a failed bribe attempt.
  5. Sanctions relief will only happen if Iran complies with terms.
  6. Iran gets no money or relief just for signing the deal.
  7. A deal has been electronically signed by Iran’s Ghalibaf, according to US officials cited by CNBC
  8. Opening the strait will take time due to mines, and to expect an increase in traffic in 1-2 weeks
  9. Details to be released in 24-48 hours
  10. Trump: Ships starting to move through strait or Hormuz
  11. Vice President JD Vance Begins Optics Roadshow to Boost Investor Confidence On Deal
  12. Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening.

The Memorandum of Understanding, which is as weak as a contract can get, is more like the following.

  1. Iran never wanted a nuclear weapon, but will do so now.
  2. No details of enforcement powers.
  3. JCPOA cut Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium by 98% etc. It wasn’t perfect, but it was much better than this.
  4. They were returning Iran’s own money.
  5. Yawn.
  6. Yes, it does. It gets $12bn hidden in a Qatari transaction, much more than the JCPOA. Another $12bn later.
  7. Goodo.
  8. Strait opening will be slow as Iran charges its fees.
  9. Still waiting.
  10. No ships are moving yet. Waiting for details.
  11. Yawn.
  12. Nope. “Under Iranian mangement” means fees.
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In short, Trump has delivered more uranium, a greater incentive to weaponise it, a peace of paper for enforcement, $12bn, another $12bn later, a tolled strait, and the demolition of US strategic power projection.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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