State governments brace for stamp duty collapse

Recent Australian state budgets have explicitly forecast a decline in stamp duty receipts for the same underlying reasons: higher interest rates, weaker housing turnover, and investor retreat following federal tax changes.

Across the East Coast, state treasuries are warning that stamp duty – one of the most volatile revenue sources – is dropping sharply because:

• Housing turnover has fallen to multi-year lows
• Auction clearance rates have collapsed
• Investor activity is retreating
• Prices are softening or flat
• Federal CGT/negative‑gearing reforms are reducing investor demand
• Higher interest rates are suppressing borrowing capacity

Victoria