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JPM has had the best oil coverage of the Iran war coverage that I have followed.
As the conflict enters its fourth month, one development stands out: prices have become remarkably calm.
Brent futures have stabilized near $100 per barrel. Dated Brent—the physical benchmark for prompt delivery—has also eased materially, and its premium to the front-month futures has retraced sharply from a record $36 in early April, when buyers were scrambling for available cargoes, to about $2, back near pre-conflict levels.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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