Australia’s net overseas migration was 301,000 in 2025

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its official population statistics for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Australia’s population grew by 412,500 (1.5%) in 2025, driven by net overseas migration (NOM) of 301,000 (1.1% of the population):

The share of population growth from NOM remained historically high at 73% in the fourth quarter of 2025:

After tracking each other closely in a directional sense for 30 years, the official quarterly NOM has continued to diverge wildly from the monthly net permanent and long-term arrivals (NPLT) figures from the ABS:

NPLT arrivals are calculated based on the intended length of stay provided on passenger cards and are not adjusted for actual duration.

NOM is based on observed behaviour rather than visa type or claimed intent, and it includes people who relocate for at least 12 months over a 16-month period.

On the other hand, changes in the stock of temporary visas, calculated from Department of Home Affairs data, are proving to be a better indicator:

In any event, the federal budget’s 295,000 NOM forecast for 2025-26 is looking more realistic than it was before today’s release:

Even so, NOM remains historically high and needs to be reduced significantly to ease housing and infrastructure pressures.