The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released CPI inflation data for April, which retraces some of the spike observed last month as petrol prices fell 7% and public transport subsidies lowered transport prices.
Headline CPI rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to April 2026, down from 4.6% in March.
Chart from Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
The policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation was 3.4% in the 12 months to April 2026, up from 3.3% in March but within the RBA’s expectations:
Chart from Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
“The RBA may indeed choose to pause in June as so far inflation has come close to its most recent forecasts”, IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner wrote on Twitter (X).
I will add that the latest jump in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in April was significantly above the RBA’s expectations:
Chart from Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
As a result, the RBA is almost certain to keep rates on hold in June.
