Victorians brace for a long, dark recession
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The latest state accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Victoria’s per capita gross state product (GSP) declined by 0.8% in 2024-25 and had risen by only 10.0% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.

In comparison, the nation as a whole recorded a 0.3% decline in per capita GDP in 2024-25 and a 14.3% increase since 2008.
Victoria has also recorded the nation’s softest growth in gross state income per capita since the GFC:
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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.