This is not a short war

Sunday 17 May 2026

Via Professor Robert Pape, author of The Escalation Trap.

Two months ago, I warned paid subscribers that the Iran war was not simply creating an oil price spike. It was creating the conditions for shortages, supply disruptions, and eventually economic contraction.

That transition is now beginning.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.