Are the budget’s migration forecasts already cooked?

Monday 25 May 2026

This month’s federal budget upgraded the forecasts for net overseas migration (NOM) by 35,000 this financial year and by 20,000 in the next financial year, compared with December’s MYEFO and last year’s budget.

The upgrade was par for the course for recent federal budgets, which have repeatedly underestimated NOM:

Chart from Tarric Brooker (Avid Commentator)

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.