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Goldman’s AI tracker is looking pretty positive for outcomes so far, with strong productivity outcomes and weak impacts on labour markets.
AI-related investment growth remains strong, particularly for semiconductors, where equity analysts expect global revenue growth of 50% from current levels by the end of 2026. AI-related investment in the US national accounts also continues to rise and now stands at $360bn (1.1% of GDP) above its 2022 level.
US investment in AI-related hardware and software continued to rise in today’s 2025Q4 GDP release. AI-related hardware shipments from Taiwan to the world rebounded in March and stood at $61.2bn.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.