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Goldman that is.
In a persistent closure scenario with a 1pp increase in the diesel yield an do demand destruction, OECD commercial stocks would likely stay above the 20 days threshold through end-2026 for diesel, but reach the threshold in December for gasoline given the hit to the gasoline yield (dark blue lines, Exhibit 6).
Ensuring that OECD commercial stocks for both diesel and gasoline stay above the estimated critical threshold through end-2026 in a persistent closure scenario likely requires a combination of:
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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