Here’s the latest on the peace talks that Trumpgod has fantasised into existence.
In private, Iranian officials say they’re preparing to resume peace talks with the United States. In public, however, they are far more wary, even pugnacious at times, as they blame the White House for putting diplomacy at risk.
On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, refused to confirm if Iran would take part in a second round of peace talks in Islamabad this week. Asked about reports of a U.S. delegation planning to travel to Pakistan Mr. Baghaei curtly called it “their own business.”
Iranian officials “do not see any serious sign of U.S. commitment” to a deal, he said.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, then vacillated on the message. While noting the “deep historical mistrust” between Iran and the United States, he said that war would serve neither country’s interests. But soon he too was back with a warning that Americans “seek Iran’s surrender. Iranians do not submit to force.”
…Mr. Pezeshkian said for “reason” to prevail in negotiations that Iran wants stronger signs President Trump would stand by a deal.
…“I think the Iranians really do want a deal, but Trump is just too crude — he just wants total victory in public,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, the editor of the regional news outlet Amwajmedia.com. “And the Iranians feel like time is on their side.”
Some Iranian officials remain deeply concerned they could come under attack even amid talks, or that Mr. Trump could return to full-fledged war, said Sasan Karimi, a vice president for strategy in Iran’s previous government, and political scientist at the University of Tehran.
“Negotiators do not even know whether they could be attacked or not when they are in the air,” he said.
“They don’t want to fall into a trap, and they don’t want to have pressurized negotiations, whether that is by limiting the time or by setting preconditions,” Mr. Karimi added. “The Iranians, in those circumstances, would prefer war.”
How is any deal going to satisfy Tehran that Trumpgod can be trusted?
The oil market made more sense, but it is Trumpgod-priced, not reality-priced.
Watch to see who goes to Islamabad. If it is nobody or a thin group, or is not led by Foreign Minister Araghchi then the IRGC hardliners are in charge. If Foreign Minister Araghchi attends but has no final authority then Tehran is still in a debate between hawks and doves.
One other possible point of progress is this.
“China calls for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, supports all efforts to restore peace and insists disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means,” Xi said in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday, according to a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry. “The Strait of Hormuz should remain open to normal transit, which is in the common interest of regional countries and the international community.”
China also supports Middle Eastern countries “taking their future and destiny into their own hands,” Xi said.
Even that is quite vague and clearly aimed at the US, if not more so than at Iran.
Finally, the USS Gerald R. Ford is returning to the Gulf after repairs. There are now three cowardly launch platforms lurking a thousand kilometres from Iranian missiles, readying for what exactly?
Watch what they do, not what they say. Resumption of war is the base case.
