Sydney’s and Melbourne’s home prices continue to shift into “correction” territory, with values declining by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, over the past 28 days, according to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index.
In contrast, values in Perth (2.1%), Brisbane (1.4%), and Adelaide (1.0%) continue to increase at a strong pace.
The sharp contrast in price performance can be attributed to the balance between supply and demand.
According to SQM Research data, the number of homes listed for sale in Sydney and Melbourne is tracking at historically elevated levels. In contrast, listings are scarce in the other major markets.
The following chart shows the total number of listings for Sydney as of March 2026. As you can see, for-sale listings are tracking at close to their highest level in at least 16 years, according to SQM Research:
It is a similar story for Melbourne, where for-sale listings are tracking at historically high levels, albeit slightly below where they were in the early 2010s:
In contrast, the other major capital city markets are experiencing a significant decline in for-sale listings, which are currently tracking far below ‘normal’ levels.
Brisbane’s for-sale listings in March were tracking at around half of their pre-pandemic levels, according to SQM Research:
Adelaide’s listings are also extremely tight, with for-sale listings tracking at around half their pre-pandemic level:
Finally, Perth’s for-sale listings are also tracking at around half the pre-pandemic levels, signalling a very tight market.
The above charts from SQM Research largely explains why Sydney’s and Melbourne’s home prices are falling, while Perth’s, Brisbane’s, and Adelaide’s are still rising strongly amid the RBA’s monetary tightening.
With the number of listings deeply depressed in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, competition for the limited number of available homes is fierce, and “fear of missing out” still prevails.
In contrast, Sydney and Melbourne have a surplus of homes for sale, allowing buyers to be selective and reducing the need to compete.
Moreover, with prices now falling and interest rates expected to rise, “fear of overpaying” is now the dominant mood among buyers in Sydney and Melbourne.
