The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data this week on population growth in the capital cities for the 2024-25 financial year.
The headline results are summarised below by the ABS, with Melbourne leading the nation’s population growth (105,030), followed by Sydney (75,230), Brisbane (58,223), and Perth (58,088):
However, the drivers of population growth across these capital cities differ markedly.
Melbourne’s and Sydney’s population increases were overwhelmingly driven by net overseas migration (NOM), with increases of 81,168 and 78,403, respectively, in 2024-24.
Both cities actually lost residents to other jurisdictions over the year. Sydney lost 33,282 residents in 2024–25, whereas Melbourne lost 8,554 residents.
This meant that NOM accounted for 104% of Sydney’s population increase in 2024–25 and 77% of Melbourne’s increase over the year.
By comparison, Brisbane’s and Perth’s population increases in 2024-25 were more balanced, supported by migration from other states and overseas.
Brisbane gained 11,077 residents from other jurisdictions in 2024–25 and 33,934 from overseas.
Perth gains 8,211 residents from other jurisdictions and 37,289 from overseas.
The trends have been just as pronounced since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-20.
The following chart plots Sydney’s population change between 2019-20 and 2024-25:
As you can see, 220,171 residents left Sydney for other jurisdictions in the five years to 2024-25. However, this loss was more than offset by 454,615 net overseas migrants who landed in Sydney over the same period, contributing 106% of Sydney’s population growth of 428,396.
Melbourne displayed similar trends over the five years to 2024-25:
Over this period, Melbourne lost 107,935 residents to other jurisdictions. But this loss was more than offset by 410,873 net overseas migrants who landed over the same period, accounting for 86% of the city’s population growth.
In comparison, Brisbane’s gained population from other parts of Australia and overseas over the five years to 2024-25:
Over this period, Brisbane gained 90,630 residents from other jurisdictions and 153,382 net overseas migrants, accounting for most of the 334,011 increase in the city’s population.
It was a similar story in Perth over the five years to 2024–25:
Over this period, Perth gained 51,580 people from other jurisdictions and 184,279 from overseas, accounting for most of the 315,206 increase in the city’s population.
Clearly, Australians have grown tired of Sydney and Melbourne and have sought greener pastures elsewhere, most notably Brisbane and Perth.
