JPM answers.
Iran’s onshore storage capacity is roughly 86 million barrels and is currently about 54% full (around 47 mb), leaving approximately 40 mb of working capacity—equivalent to about 22 days of exports. In addition, roughly four Iran-linked VLCCs remain inside the Strait of Hormuz. If loaded, they could carry about 8 million barrels, extending the window to roughly 26 days.
In reality, upstream production adjustments would likely start sooner and build over time rather than occur all at once. A practical rule of thumb is that Iran would need to begin reducing production after roughly 16 days of a total export blackout, with curtailments then ramping up toward full export-volume shut-ins, or around 1.9 mbd, closer to day 30.
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