Bow down before the Trump God

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There was a certain inevitability to it.

Amusing riposte here.

And with that, we shall move on to his idiotic war, which today shows little progress.

The outlook for fuel shortages is basically unchanged, with OECD inventories still to reach critical lows in early May, after which Australia will have a devil of a time securing fuel.

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Most notable today is that a global jet fuel crisis is upon us, with shortages emerging everywhere.

Jet fuel is typically manufactured from medium- to heavy-sour crudes popular in the Gulf, and there are no substitutes.

Moreover, the inventory depletion is so severe that it could take a year to fix if we get peace now.

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Your holiday is now in the hands of the Trump God.

Air travel’s worst crisis in years lurched deeper on Tuesday as Qantas Airways warned ‌of spiralling costs, Lufthansa said it may have to ground planes and Virgin Atlantic flagged a looming supply crunch, with the Iran conflict squeezing fuel supplies.

The war has upended routes between Asia and Europe that relied on Gulf hubs, while a doubling of jet fuel prices and tightening of supplies are hitting airlines hard. Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, carriers have hiked air fares, introduced ​fuel surcharges and cut routes.

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In other news, the discussions have revealed more details, with the main issue being the US’s request for a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment and Iran’s offer of five.

Also, there is talk that the Iranian delegation was pulled out after its foreign minister gave some ground funding to regional proxies, which proved a red line for the IRGC and/or Supreme Leader. Talks may resume in two days.

Finally, Israel and Lebanon are pretending to talk but are, in reality, still killing each other as fast as possible.

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I still find it difficult to believe that we are anywhere near a lasting resolution for anything. Not even a sustainable kick of the can.

The problem is, Iran has won the war. Sure, the Trump God can slip away and blame Europe. But if we emerge from it now, Iran will become so rich, so fast, it will rise to regional hegemon overnight.

That not only kills the greater Israel project, but Israel itself will face a slow but certain contraction into annihilation.

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Desperate states do desperate stuff, and if the kind of garbage above is floating around in an epistemology-turned-AI soup, why wouldn’t Israel nuke Iran?

Sure, it becomes a global pariah. But it also replaces Iran as the Gulf hegemon.

Especially if it, say, irradiated its oil fields for a couple of decades.

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With the blessing of the Trump God.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.