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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) wage price index for the December quarter revealed that real inflation-adjusted wages declined by 0.3% in 2025 and were tracking 6% below their Covid-19 ‘bubble’ peak of around late 2011 levels:
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) forecasts laid out in its February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) suggested that real wages would not recover over the forward estimates.
By the June quarter of 2028, the RBA forecast that Australia’s real wages would be 6.4% lower than their mid-2020 peak, at roughly the same level as the March quarter of 2011:
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.