Over the COVID-19 pandemic and the years immediately following, there was a strong migration from Victoria to Queensland.
According to the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population figures, Victoria had experienced two consecutive quarters of net inward migration from other states—the first inflows since the pandemic began.
While the net inflow was small—only 699 combined over the two quarters—this net inflow occurred at the same time as Queensland’s interstate migration fell to its lowest level since 2016.
The shift in migration rates makes sense when you examine the disparities in housing values between Victoria and Queensland.
The chart below, generated using PropTrack data, shows that Brisbane dwelling values have surged by 116% since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. In comparison, Melbourne dwelling values have only risen by a sedate 22%:
Similarly, regional Queensland dwelling prices increased by 113% since March 2020, compared to a 52% rise in regional Victoria:
Queensland’s housing market has transformed from being one of the most affordable in the country before the COVID-19 outbreak to the second most expensive, trailing only New South Wales:
Brisbane’s median dwelling value of $1,046,000 was $192,000 (22.5%) more than Melbourne’s median dwelling value as of February 28, 2026, according to Proptrack.
As of February 28, 2026, Regional Queensland’s median dwelling value of $810,000 was $214,000 (36%) higher than Regional Victoria’s median dwelling value.
KPMG’s latest house price forecasts anticipate that Brisbane dwelling values will continue to record strong growth over 2026 and 2027, whereas Melbourne will record softer growth:
Source: KPMG
Given Victoria’s far superior housing affordability, which will continue to widen based on the latest price trends and forecasts, we are likely to see significant numbers of Queenslanders fleeing south.
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, affordable housing was a key drawcard for Queensland. Now, the situation has completely flipped, making Queensland the nation’s second most expensive housing market and Victoria the cheapest among the major capital cities.
