Sydney housing prices are “falling as we speak”

Wednesday 25 March 2026

Earlier this month, the founder of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, forecast that Sydney home prices would decline by between -2% and -6% in 2026:

SQM’s “base case” forecast assumed the official cash rate would rise only once more this year, to 4.35%.

However, the latest pricing from the interest rate futures market suggests that the official cash rate will rise to 4.85% by the end of the year, a 16-year high:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.