Australian Economy Australian interest rates Australian Property

Mortgage stress to hit new high in 2026

Thursday 26 March 2026

Roy Morgan has released analysis showing that 30.3% of mortgage holders would be “at risk” of stress if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were to lift the official cash rate by another 25 bps at its May Meeting— the third consecutive increase:

This would take mortgage stress back to its recent peak achieved in June 2024:

The interest rate futures market has fully priced three additional rate hikes this year, which would take the official cash rate to 4.85% by year’s end:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.