Cotality has released its final auction results for last weekend, with the national capital city clearance rate falling to just 56.9%, the lowest level since January 2025.
Source: Cotality
As illustrated in the next chart, the average national capital city final clearance rate for March (57%) is also the lowest since January 2025 and points to falling dwelling value growth:
Sydney’s final auction clearance rate fell to 55.0% last weekend, the city’s lowest result since January 2025.
The March average final clearance rate of 57% was also Sydney’s lowest since January 2025 and points to falling values:
Melbourne’s final auction clearance rate fell to 57.4% last weekend, the city’s second-lowest weekly result of the year.
The March average final clearance rate of 57% was Melbourne’s lowest since January 2025 and also points to falling values:
This weekend will place more pressure on the auction market and home values, with a whopping 4,163 homes scheduled for auction across the combined capital cities, up 49.8% on last weekend and the busiest auction week since December 2021.
This weekend, Sydney is poised to host its busiest auction market since December 2021, with 1,691 auctions currently scheduled, a 73.1% increase from last weekend.
Melbourne has the highest volume of scheduled auctions this weekend, with 1,827 homes set to go under the hammer, up 33.4% on last week. This would mark the busiest auction weekend since the week ending 26th October last year.
Recall that SQM Research founder Louis Christopher has forecast price declines for Sydney and Melbourne this year between -1% and -6%:
However, under “Scenario 2” listed above, SQM Research forecasts price declines of -4% to -9% in Sydney and Melbourne if the Reserve Bank of Australia raises the official cash rate to 4.5% or higher, from the current 4.10%.
The interest rate futures market is currently predicting a high likelihood of three more rate hikes for 2026, which would lift the official cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%:
If these forecasts were to come to fruition, they would bring “Scenario 2” into play and very likely result in significant falls in dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne.
