Apparently, it takes at least two debilitating energy wars to convince the Albanese government to do something about the East Coast gas export cartel.
Perhaps the number is infinite.
Let us recall that MB contacted the incoming Albanese government in its first week in office and told it straight up that if it did not do something about gas as Russia invaded Ukraine, then it would lead to an incessant inflationary shock via gas prices.
We were right, of course, but Albo’s energy idiots didn’t listen, specifically Lord Charlton, and Australia has been stuck with an untenable inflation profile ever since.
Here we are nearly four years later, and Albo has still done nothing effective to protect Australia from external energy shocks via imported gas prices.
And guess what, another one is on the way!
According to a recent note from Goldman Sachs, if ship flows through the Strait of Hormuz are stopped after military strikes on Iran, European natural gas prices may almost triple, and worldwide LNG markets would face major supply disruptions.
If LNG flows across the Strait are completely stopped for a month, TTF natural gas prices might reach 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu), 130% over present levels, according to Goldman Sachs commodity experts.
During the European energy crisis of 2022, that threshold led to significant responses in natural gas demand.
According to the brokerage, European natural gas prices would probably rise beyond 100 EUR/MWh ($35/mmBtu) if the outage lasted longer than two months.
About 80 million tonnes of LNG, or 19% of the world’s supply, are transported across the Strait of Hormuz annually, mostly from Qatar.
They also say the same for Asian prices. A $25 JKM is equivalent to roughly a $35Gj local gas price.
Your energy bills will roughly double.
Thankfully, local prices have actually gone the other way for now. I am not sure why.
But do not trust it. If there is one thing we know about the East Coast gas cartel, it is that it is a very efficient war profiteer.
This war should not run as long as the Ukraine War energy shock, but you’re kidding yourself if you think the risks are controllable.
If Albo’s idiots let the Ukraine War shock replay again in Aussie energy prices, then One Nation is headed for The Lodge.
