Brisbane dwelling values have soared by 116% since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, according to PropTrack.
As a result, Brisbane is now the nation’s second most expensive housing market after Sydney, with a median dwelling value of $1,046,000 as of February 28, 2026, and a median house price of $1,203,000:
According to Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, Australian housing has never been this expensive when measured against average wages and average household disposable incomes:
Oliver also estimates that Brisbane housing is the most overvalued in the nation relative to long-term price and rent ratios:
Oliver estimates that Brisbane houses are 45% overvalued, while Brisbane units are 28% overvalued.
In comparison, the average capital city house in Australia is estimated to be 33% overvalued, whereas the average unit is only 5% overvalued.
Abnormally strong population growth helps explain the rise in Brisbane’s home values.
As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, Queensland’s resident population was tracking 145,449 above the pre-pandemic trend as of July 2025:
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
This unexpected surge in population growth has helped drive housing demand across Brisbane and regional Queensland:
At the same time, the number of homes listed for sale in Brisbane has plunged, down by 22.9% over the past year, according to Cotality:
Source: Cotality
“In many parts of Brisbane and regional Queensland, we’re seeing that stock on [the] market is at incredibly constrained levels relative to historic averages”, REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh told the ABC.
“And that’s creating conditions that are still quite competitive”.
“Buyers have limited choices, and that’s continuing to put a floor under house prices”, she said.
How long these conditions last is anybody’s guess. However, based on pure fundamentals, Queensland’s housing market looks seriously overvalued, making it particularly vulnerable to a future house price correction.
