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According to Macquarie Bank:
Oil may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
“If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the analysts said in the March 27 report. “The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities.”
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.