Aussies cut expenditure, complicating interest rate outlook
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Wednesday’s December quarter national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) came in hot, with GDP rising by 2.6% in 2025, above the RBA’s latest forecast in the February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP):
Chart by Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
Viewed alongside the higher-than-target inflation and lower-than-forecast unemployment rate, the strong GDP print suggests that the RBA will be compelled to hike interest rates again, possibly at this month’s meeting.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.