PBO’s migration analysis doesn’t add up

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The Australian newspaper has used the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) budget tool to attack One Nation’s proposal to cap visas at 130,000 a year and aim for net-zero immigration.

The analysis claims that a net-zero migration policy could reduce federal government revenue by about $100 billion over the next decade, including nearly $80 billion in foregone income tax revenue. The analysis also suggests that total federal budget savings via personal benefits, Medicare benefits, and unemployment support payments could be less than $15 billion over 10 years.

The analysis also claims that federal government debt could rise by $419 billion over this period.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.