Australian Economy Australian interest rates

Finally, some positive news on inflation

Wednesday 11 February 2026

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) forecast that trimmed mean inflation would rise in the near term to 3.7% and would remain above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2% to 3% target band until the end of 2028.

The RBA also assumed that the official cash rate would rise two more times by the end of 2027.

The NAB Monthly Business Survey, released on Tuesday, contained some rare good news on the inflation front.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.