China’s year of the dead horse

As we enter the Chinese Year of the Horse, which signifies dynamism, energy, and freedom, ANZ believes that Chinese growth is entering a new era.

While such an assumption is okay in theory, the notion that Chinese growth is about to rise is pretty laughable to me. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is notoriously difficult to measure. But many measures are all saying the same thing: rapid and deep deceleration.

China is doing the right thing, after many decades of going wrong, in shifting capital up the technology value chain.