Australian real wages won’t recover

Thursday 5 February 2026

Over the past several years, Australia’s real inflation-adjusted wages have experienced their largest decline in modern history.

Between the June quarter of 2020 and the March quarter of 2023, Australian real wages declined by 7.4%, returning to levels not seen since the March quarter of 2009.

Real wages have recovered somewhat since, rising by 1.1% from their low as of the September quarter of 2025 (the latest available data).

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.