The mild weather sure isn’t saving your current energy bills, which will be going literally through the roof thanks to Albo’s incredibly mismanaged Ukraine War power shock and bill rebates.
However, the mild summer weather has triggered hope that a better year is ahead for bill relief.
According to this analysis, wholesale prices in NSW more than halved year on year in the December quarter, while Queensland also recorded a steep fall. Victoria and South Australia, which started from lower bases, experienced more modest declines.
AEMO data showed wholesale prices during the June to August winter period were far more stubborn. NSW prices were effectively flat year on year, edging down by less than 1 per cent, while Victoria and Tasmania recorded only modest declines. Queensland and South Australia fared better, with prices falling by about 12 per cent, but winter averages across the NEM remained elevated compared with other seasons.
…AEMO data shows wind, solar – including rooftop photovoltaic panels – hydro and batteries accounted for roughly 46 per cent of generation in the December quarter, up from about 42 per cent a year earlier. That helped blunt price spikes during daylight hours, even as demand rose during hot days.
That is welcome with a modest rise in renewable output.
More significant is the mild weather, which has led to weak demand and, importantly, has dragged down the gas price that sets the marginal cost, rather than the price of renewables.
The softer prices are being reflected in futures, though less so for NSW.
There is enough price weakness to trigger price discounts starting in July of this year (we’ll get a read on that with the preliminary default price offer in March).
But these will only give back a small fraction of Albo’s 2025 wretched bill subsidy shock, which is the primary driver of the broader renewed inflation pulse.
