Treasury hits back at Labor over 5% home deposit scheme

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Last year, I claimed that the Australian Treasury’s modelling of Labor’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers demonstrated that the Treasury had become the federal government’s propaganda arm.

Labor’s First Home Buyer Guarantee program, which went into effect in October 2025, allows nearly all first home buyers to purchase a property with only a 5% deposit and no lenders’ mortgage insurance because taxpayers will guarantee 15% of the mortgage.

The Treasury’s analysis of the scheme, released prior to its introduction, forecast that the policy would only increase home values by 0.6% over six years.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.