Let’s take a look inside the new inflation spurt with Goldman charts.
Goldman expects the ABS monthly trimmed mean will rise by 0.2% in December, resulting in a year-over-year gain of 3.2%.
Goldman’s prediction of a 0.91%qoq increase in the trimmed mean measure for the entire December quarter is slightly higher than the RBA’s November SMP projection (+0.8%qoq).
Goldman observes that in order to calculate quarterly growth rates, the quarterly trimmed mean will require prices from specific months for certain goods.
Price changes in December will therefore impact the 4Q2025 trimmed mean in only a few CPI basket components.
Goldman expects travel to be one of those, with airline prices up sharply.
The runaway housing sector is where the real problem is; the renewed energy shock is driving housing construction prices up. Albo’ rental shock has ebbed with disinflation ahead.
Broader service inflation appears contained, as wage growth is expected to fall below 3%.
Basically, the RBA should, and in my view, will hold as the energy cost-push inflation ebbs into H2.
