No signs of emerging wage inflation

Last week, CBA released its wage tracker for December, which draws on de-identified salary flows from around 400,000 CBA accounts to provide an early snapshot of wage growth.

In the December quarter of 2025, CBA recorded annual wage growth of only 3.1%, well below the 3.4% CPI inflation increase recorded by the ABS in the year to November.

Historically, CBA’s wage tracker has correlated strongly with the ABS’ official quarterly measure closely. Thus, it points to a soft result when the ABS reports the Q4 wage price index on 18 February 2026. It also suggests that wage inflation remains muted.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.