From boom levels to more moderate. the Westpac credit card index has come off.
Though seasonal adjustments may be messing with the outcome.
The most recent weekly Index reading of 158.2 is the highest on record, but these problems probably overstate its strength.
Although there are some hesitant indications of deceleration around the year’s beginning, the overall picture of a robust December quarter outcome.
Card activity reported a robust 2.3% quarterly gain in the December quarter, increasing yearly growth to 7.2% year over year.
This was the highest annual rate since March 2023, when growth was still affected by the post-COVID reopening, and the largest quarterly gain since March 2024.
However, measures of higher frequency indicate that there might have been some moderation towards the conclusion of the year.
The 1.6% monthly advance in September and the 0.9% monthly gain in October were followed by a +0.1% increase in November, with some of that slower pace continuing into December, when there was a 0.6% monthly increase.
Although they can be a less trustworthy indicator at this time of year, weekly measurements of quarterly growth have also significantly reduced.
I still view this as pent-up demand and expect it to slow as concerns about the RBA persist.
