A previously undisclosed $57 billion deterioration in the federal budget outlook has emerged since the election, driven mainly by higher long‑term spending under the Albanese government. The blowout means the budget is no longer expected to return to surplus within the next decade.
Analysis by the office of shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien, independently verified by economist and budget expert Chris Richardson, shows that the federal budget’s deterioration appears after the four‑year forward estimates, beginning in 2029–30 and continuing to 2035–36.
Treasury projections show deficits worsening by $4–11 billion per year across the period.
