DXY is getting Trumped as we enter 2026.
AUD is still trending higher.
But it is paced by a slow-moving CNY.
Gold appears tired. Oil has died.
Base metals are all AI all of the time.
Big miners whoa.
EM stocks are throwing NY party.
Junk ain’t.
Duration is a threat.
With US stocks in bubble, it’s now a dash for trash.
Everything but junk and US stocks is ramping hard as an expanding AI bubble spills over into whatever it can find that can be spelled with an “A” and an “I”.
My view of 2026 is more of the same, with the AUD tagging along meekly as it has done so far.
The Chinese are already making noises about the rising CNY, which is no surprise given export volumes are the only part of the economy with any growth at all.
The flood of surplus Chinese goods into non-US markets has been impressive, and only the truly inept have created an inflation problem due to discounting (hint, hint Chicken Chalmers)
I do not expect a banner year for Chinese growth, given fading stimulants and failed property rescues.
So CNY will be talked down and pressured via other means before long, preventing the AUD from really getting moving.
My outlook remains a peak of 68-69 cents before the busts in iron ore, coal and gas come to bear as the year deepens.
