ABS doesn’t believe that immigration is falling

Tuesday 27 January 2026

In the lead-up to December’s Q2 population release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), several key data sets were pointing to rebounding net overseas migration (NOM).

First, the Q3 national accounts, released just a few weeks prior in early December, showed that Australia’s population growth had rebounded:

Second, the civilian (15-plus) population data released by the ABS had been rising since March 2025:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.