Unemployment jumps amid "labour market stagnation"

The latest Statement of Monetary Policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecast that the official unemployment rate would remain around its current level until the end of 2027:

With “full employment” being one of the RBA’s mandates (the other being “price stability”), an increase in unemployment significantly above the forecast implies an increased chance of interest rate cuts.

Roy Morgan released its shadow labour force report for November, which suggested the jobs market continues to soften.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Unemployment jumps amid “labour market stagnation”