The gas cartel is destroying Australia

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I long for a competent opposition. The Albanese government has sabotaged energy policy to such an extent that it is a miracle it remains in power.

Check out some examples today.

Cathy King is the owner of hairdressing business Toni&Guy, which has 22 salons across Sydney.

Ms King, who manages three salons, says her electricity costs have surged in the past couple of years. In 2023, she paid $1800 a quarter in electricity for her Mosman salon.

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But that jumped to between $2300-$2500 in 2024, and she now pays $2800 a quarter in energy.

…For Kylie Scott, who owns popular Brisbane bakery Flour & Chocolate with her husband Lachlan, the cost of electricity is “right up there with one of our biggest costs”.

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The couple are paying $110,000 a year for electricity, but she says that amount will double to $220,000 when their existing wholesale energy agreement expires in a couple of months.

…Cameron Kenley is the proud owner of food distributor Cadell Food Services, which is based in Echuca, in regional Victoria, and Melbourne.

That has meant paying an additional $200,000 for electricity, which is on top of the $500,000 the company was already paying in 2023.

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It goes on and on. This is Australia’s sticky inflation. All of it is entirely unnecessary.

The core of the problem is not the energy transition; rather, the transition would have gradually increased prices over time due to network costs, even as cheaper renewables reduced wholesale prices.

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It is a failure of the gas transition strategy, owing to the LNG export cartel. This issue can be resolved quickly by implementing gas export levies.

Moreover, the same failure is killing the energy transition, as rising costs and failing support leave us dependent on unprofitable, publicly subsidised coal.

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Australia’s energy market operator has warned that NSW could face frequent and costly government intervention to keep the lights on if the state’s largest coal plant closes before critical grid-support equipment is installed — a projection that strengthens the case for extending the life of the Eraring power station beyond 2027.

In a sweeping assessment of system security, the Australian Energy Market Operator said delays to essential infrastructure projects — including synchronous condensers, grid reinforcements and grid-forming batteries — threaten to leave the east coast power system without enough tools to keep the grid stable in real time. Without a rapid acceleration of investment, AEMO cautioned it will be forced to lean more heavily on expensive fossil-fuel generators, driving up costs for households and businesses.

NSW presents the clearest risk. Transgrid is racing to install new synchronous condensers to maintain system strength before Origin Energy’s Eraring coal plant retires. But in a warning that underscores AEMO’s doubts about whether the equipment can be delivered by 2027, the operator said delays could leave the state without enough large synchronous machines to hold the grid steady.

We are discussing voltage stability. Coal-fired power plants produce stable-voltage electricity because they spin large synchronous wheels.

Renewables convert DC to AC power with an inverter and have no mechanical parts to stabilise voltage. Unstable voltage blows everything up, from electronics to motors to insulation.

This also causes renewable power generators to trip, leading to system-wide blackouts like the one that infamously affected Spain and Portugal earlier this year.

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So, you need synchronous condensers to stabilise the grid as coal exits. This requirement contributes to the overall increase in network costs.

Or you need traditional gas peakers (or both), which use large spinning machinery, start up very quickly, and stabilise voltage.

By rendering gas uneconomic as a power fuel, the LNG export cartel is single-handedly destroying the physics of the national electricity market, the Australian economy, and the politics of energy.

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Implement an immediate 100% export levy on gas exports priced above $7/GJ to end inflation, address energy transition hiccups, and address political instability.

This will result in a $10 billion windfall for the budget.

FFS.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.