It’s going to be a busy week for the Australian dollar which has been on a tear recently against a broadening weakness building in USD (now down over 3% in two weeks). With a slew of central bank decisions in the next few days and the long awaited, delayed and possibly massaged US non-farm payrolls print on Friday, it could get a lot hotter for the Pacific Peso.
In between we get the Australian Federal Government MYEFO – the mid year mini budget that is hugely dependent on commodity prices, which are hugely dependent on the weakness or strength of the AUD.
Looking at the weekly chart for the year we can see how the Aussie bottomed out around the 61 cent level before slowing climbing back as the market figured the RBA was moving more into a neutral stance:
The 2024 high at the 69 cent level seems to be the likely target or overreach of any sustained breakout from these levels with the intra-year high at the 67 cent level proper the likely level to hit next, depending on how really neutral the Fed is when it comes to the US softening labour market.
All eyes on Friday!