25 years of housing affordability hell

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The Australian has published fascinating data showing the extraordinary rise in home values this century.

As illustrated below, house prices have soared by between 227% (Darwin) and 570% (Adelaide) over the past 25 years:

Unit prices have experienced similarly explosive growth, rising by between 163% (Darwin) and 600% (Adelaide) over 25 years:

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Unit price growth

Cotality’s latest housing affordability report showed a massive increase in the national dwelling value-to-income ratio, from 5.2 at the series’ beginning in Q3 2002 to 8.2 as of Q3 2025:

Dwelling price to income ratio
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Adelaide and Brisbane, which have experienced the strongest dwelling price growth over 25 years, have also experienced the largest increase in the dwelling price-to-income ratio:

Dwelling price-to-income ratio

Despite Australia’s official cash rate being lower today (at 3.6%) than it was 25 years ago (at 6.25%), the share of household income required to service a new mortgage on the median-priced home has risen from 27.9% in Q3 2002 to 45% as of Q3 2025:

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Australian mortgage affordability

Again, Adelaide (50.4%) and Brisbane (48.0%) have experienced the largest rise in the cost of servicing a mortgage, reflecting their extreme price growth:

Mortgage repayments
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The sharp erosion in housing affordability has been replicated in the rental market following the recent extreme growth in asking rents:

Advertised rents

The share of income required to meet the national median advertised rent hit a record high of 33.4% in Q3 2025:

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Australian rental affordability

Rental affordability has hit record lows across all major capital city markets, other than Melbourne:

Rental affordability by capital
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The bottom line is that housing affordability—both to purchase and rent—has badly eroded over the past 25 years.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.