If a new Morgan Stanley study is any guide, it’s bad news all around for youth.
The jobs they can do that are hostile to AI job displacement are the most toxic, most unpleasant, and most migrant-saturated imaginable.
In short, your kid can plunge his/her hands into the abyss of the human mouth, handle flesh-eating chemicals, lurk with the dead, bow down before the one they serve, or manage a bedpan.
It has started.
A lot of the recent discussion around AI and jobs has focused specifically on young software developers.
Each week more news stories come out chronicling young people’s struggles finding work in the industry.
It turns out these anecdotes in the media are borne out in the ADP data.
Employment for 22 to 25 year old software developers in the ADP data is down nearly 20% between its peak in late 2022, around the time of ChatGPT’s launch, to July 2025.
Surprisingly, we see a similar pattern for customer service representatives, another job often considered exposed to AI.
For 22-to 25-year-olds, employment is rising in the least AI-exposed jobs like for health aides but notably declining in the most exposed jobs like software development or customer service.
In contrast, for older age groups we see no meaningful divergence in employment patterns by AI exposure.
The euro area working age population is set to fall by 6.4% by 2040, on Eurostat projections.
At the same time, the population over 65 is projected to rise by almost 26%.
We estimate the decline in working age population will reduce euro area GDP by more than 4% between now and 2040, all else equal AI can be a powerful force to offset the effects of a fall in the working age population–but there could still be significant disruptions in employment that would require massive re-skilling initiatives.
Question: But what about for those counties that have elected to offset population aging with an immigration-led economy to suppress wages and boost house prices?
Answer: Revolution.
