RBA’s unemployment forecast already shot to pieces

Wednesday 12 November 2025

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) revised its medium-term unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.3%.

As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA’s unemployment rate forecast to the end of 2027 is slightly lower than the current unemployment rate of 4.5%:

Therefore, the RBA expects the unemployment rate to decline marginally from its current level over the next several years.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.