Gas Balkanisation is suddenly being debated.
Townsville Enterprise has warned that surging gas prices are crippling Queensland industries and threatening the State’s manufacturing and mining competitiveness.
The call follows mounting concern over the east coast gas crisis, with warnings of tightening supply and soaring costs for manufacturers and households.
Representing North Queensland’s key industries, Townsville Enterprise has long advocated for energy security and affordability as cornerstones of regional competitiveness.
To address this crisis, Townsville Enterprise is calling on the Federal Government to urgently reform gas pricing and market mechanisms to ensure affordable domestic supply. They are also calling on the Queensland Government to implement a state-based domestic gas policy that secures Queensland gas for Queensland industries first.
Also in Victoria.
Victoria sends more gas interstate than it uses, but that’s tipped to change as the Bass Strait supply diminishes.
Director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre Bruce Mountain said ending interstate gas exports likely would not happen anytime soon because gas is a federal resource.
“Victoria constitutionally doesn’t have the right to constrain the trade of that commodity,” Mr Mountain said.
“Many Victorian customers will say, well, it’s a landed resource in Victoria and the government should have an industry policy that supports domestic activity.”
These states should do it as a gambit aimed at forcing do-nothing Albo to create a retrospective East Coast reservation policy.
This policy should be an export levy imposed on every dollar exported above $7Gj. This is high enough for all reserves to be developed and low enough to kill inflation, plus restore industry.
Unlike the mulled export credit system, it will also ensure that crashed prices from the global gas glut reach Australia. Goldman.
As global LNG supply continues to grow faster than Asia demand, we estimate NW European storage will face congestion in 2028/2029, pressuring TTF and JKM low enough to reduce global LNG supply by closing the US LNG export arb.
The resulting cancellation of US exports will in turn soften the US gas market and likely pressure Henry Hub sharply lower, pulling TTF and JKM further down in order to keep the US export arb closed. We expect this dynamic to ultimately take 2028/2029 prices to 12/12 EUR/MWh for TTF, $4.40/$4.45/mmBtu for JKM and $2.70/$2.75/mmBtu for Henry Hub, well below current forwards, and even lower in the 28/29 springs.
This is gas delivered to Australia for $7Gj. With an export levy system, there will be no need for import terminals.
The answer is obvious. All that is missing is a Prime Minister of Australia.
