Follow the Fed

Wednesday 26 November 2025

Always follow the Fed. The Market Ear.

Keep it simple…

…follow the 10 year, but the US outlook is murkier than many think. Hatzius’ (GS) call for a Dec-10 rate cut lines up with softer alternative labor data showing the economy may be losing momentum. The slowdown may be necessary: once tariffs fade, tax cuts arrive, and financial conditions ease further in 2026, the backdrop should turn far more market-friendly. Chart shows NDX vs US 10 year (inverted).

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.