Australian house price inflation hits 28 month high

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Over the weekend, the nation recorded its highest volume of auctions since March, with 3,258 capital city homes going under the hammer.

Despite the strong volumes, the preliminary clearance rate was 70.0%. While this was down from 71.8% last week, the result suggested that buyer demand remained robust and is absorbing the higher volumes.

Preliminary auction results

Source: Cotality

Melbourne had its third-busiest auction week of the year, recording a preliminary clearance rate of 70.5%.

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Sydney recorded its second-busiest auction week of the year with a preliminary clearance rate of 70.8%.

Despite 11 of his 12 auctions selling in Sydney on Saturday, which follows 15 out of 16 last weekend, leading auctioneer Tom Panos, said that “ever since we had the Reserve Bank change its tone and commentary” on interest rates, “the sentiment has gone a little bit” and “the fear of missing out has eased
a little bit”.

Indeed, as Alex Joiner from IFM Investors shows below, market interest rate pricing suggests that the official cash rate will remain on hold from here:

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RBA rate cut expectations

Regardless, home values continue to power ahead, with Cotality’s daily dwelling values index surging higher, led by Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide:

Cotality 28-day change
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At the 5-city aggregate level, dwelling values have risen by 1.05%—the highest growth rate since July 2023:

Cotality 28-day change

Therefore, despite the RBA taking its foot off the interest rate accelerator, the housing market continues to power ahead, fueled by Labor’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers and an overall shortage of homes listed for sale.

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Total for sale listings

Source: Cotality

Listings by capital

Source: Cotality

“Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) remains, even though it has eased somewhat.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.