DXY is the canary in the coalmine.
AUD couldn’t ride it.
CNY meh.
Gold and oil held gains.
AI metals faded.
Miners meh.
EM meh.
Junk is only OK.
Yields meh.
Stocks meh.
There is mounting evidence that the US jobs market has stalled out. ADP for October was out overnight weak. It does correlate with the BLS in trend terms.
Goldman’s sees -50k in the BLS.
As AI comes to town.
Nearly 20% of layoffs are AI-related and rising fast.
Australia also has a jobless recovery at this point, but it has a much less sophisticated economy, so AI will take longer to impact.
There are other warnings.
Despite its outsize international influence, we don’t hear a lot from DeepSeek. They don’t put out long “recommendations” manifestos or parade executives at global summits. The last public appearance of Chief Executive Officer Liang Wenfeng was during a February meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Since then, the company has skipped nearly all the major tech conferences.
So when a representative from the Hangzhou-based startup steps into the spotlight to sound the alarm about AI’s “dangerous” societal impacts, it’s worth listening. Especially if it encroaches on a topic Beijing has spent years trying to bury.
Chen Deli, a senior researcher at DeepSeek, warned at a convention last week that a severe labor market crisis is coming as automation wipes out most jobs, according to the South China Morning Post. This will “shake society to its core,” he added, and AI companies must act as “whistleblowers” to warn the public about the positions that will be the first to go. For now, Chen said, we are in the “honeymoon phase.”
Pressure on the Fed to cut means pressure on the AUD to rise.
