AI job shock begins in America

Friday 7 November 2025

The US jobs market is being buffeted by a number of forces.

reduced government spending;
tarrif shocks to margins recouped through labour efficiencies;
investment uncertainty owing to the orange madman;
and AI.

The BLS labour market data is still down, but Revelio has a decent correlation with the NFP (roughly 0.75%), and it just printed an October shocker.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.