Victoria is headed toward a financial crisis

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Victoria is the nation’s most indebted state with the lowest credit rating.

Global rating agencies have reaffirmed Victoria’s AA credit rating, although the state government has been put on notice to reduce debt, rein in operating costs, and show fiscal restraint ahead of the November 2026 election.

On Wednesday, the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance released the 2024-25 Financial Report, which advised that the state’s operating deficit fell to $2.6 billion in 2024-25, compared with $4.2 billion for the previous financial year. The operating deficit was also $816 million lower than had been forecast in the May 2025 budget.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.